Bright future for Baikal

From Krasnoiarsk, April 16th 2009.
Before closing the topic of Lake Baikal, let me share interesting learning that helps break pre-conceived ideas.

1. Lake Baikal is much polluted! Wrong.
Since the collapse of Soviet Union and especially in the 90’s, American, German and French journalists from TV channels and newspapers, as well as cultural and ecological associations, have written and worked on Lake Baikal risks.
Lake Baikal is indeed uniquely important as it has so many endemic species, but situation has changed and risk remains limited.

First, the population of the basin is very low with reduced domestic and agricultural outlets bringing only very little phosphate and nitrogen to the lake.
Sources of pollution are much localized and could be, until the past years, clearly identified as 3:
- Railway Baikal-Amur,
- Selenga river basin,
- Baikalsk paper-cellulose manufacturing site.



The first source is localized around Severobaikalsk, city built in 1974 for the exploitation of the BAM railway. However, only 9% of existing natural resources of this region are effectively used and this source is considered as low risk.

The second area is along the biggest affluent of Lake Baikal, Selenga river, bringing to the south-eastern part of the lake outlets from Mongolia and Buriatie. It is particularly dangerous for northern and central of the lake as streams bring these outlets to the north, on around 1,500km2. Some of those have been identified up to 130km to the north-east.

But by far the biggest source of pollution for Baikal is Baikalsk paper-cellulose manufacturing complex, located in the extreme south of the lake and which contributes by 59% to the outlets of used water. Cellulose is a strategic material for aeronautic industry and in the context of Cold War Khroutchchev decided in 1954 to build a Sovietic plant dedicated for this material. The choice of the site was driven by 3 criteria:
i) A lot of water close by with low mineral content,
ii) Close pinewood forests as raw material,
iii)And good infrastructure for easier logistics.
Lake Baikal and its South part for the Trans-Siberian railway were by far the best choice, and the decision led in 1959 to the construction of a new city around the plant: Baikalsk.
However, following a decreasing demand and pressure from scientific and ecological associations, the site has been closed a few years ago, giving Lake Baikal a brighter future.

2. Lake Baikal is endangered and threatened of disappearing! Wrong again.

The speed of filling with sediments is lower than the one of the lake's cavity.
On the one hand, the rift is opening further at a speed of 0.1cm/year, the lake is going deeper by 2mm/year, and the surrounding mountains are becoming higher.
On the other hand, the Lake Baikal is cristaline so that it brings only few sediments. The protection by the taiga helps reducing even more the sedimentation rate, down to 0.25mm/year.
In consequence, the balance is favorable for a long existence of the lake: the older Lake Baikal gets, the bigger.